USD/CAD has been trending lower over recent months, declining nearly 3% over the past 90 days and currently trading at 1.3600, well below its 52-week high of 1.4500 and under the 50-day moving average of 1.3700. The pair's weakness reflects a combination of resilient Canadian oil exports supporting the loonie and shifting expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Bank of Canada has been cutting rates ahead of the Fed, but narrowing rate differentials and firmer crude oil prices have provided CAD support. Geopolitical risks, including U.S.-Canada trade tensions over tariffs, remain a wildcard that could inject volatility. On the bullish side, any deterioration in risk sentiment or renewed USD strength on sticky inflation could push the pair back toward 1.3800-1.4000. Bearish scenarios include further crude oil appreciation and accelerated Fed easing expectations driving USD/CAD toward the 1.3500 support floor. This is a highly liquid, well-traded major pair offering strong opportunities for both trend and range strategies.