Upstart is an AI lending platform that uses machine learning to assess creditworthiness beyond traditional FICO scores, representing a volatile but potentially disruptive fintech investment.
Data updated Feb 15 · Source: Twelve Data
Upstart Holdings operates an AI-powered lending platform that partners with banks and credit unions to automate loan decisioning. The company's core thesis " that AI can better assess credit risk than traditional FICO scores " remains compelling, but execution has been volatile. The stock has been brutally punished, down 65% over the past year and trading near its 52-week low of $29.61, reflecting deep investor skepticism.
The bull case centers on a surprisingly reasonable P/E of 10.36 and EPS of $2.96, suggesting the company has achieved meaningful profitability after years of losses. If Upstart can sustain earnings through economic cycles, current valuations could represent a compelling entry point. The AI lending model has significant TAM across personal loans, auto, and home lending.
The bear case is substantial: the 30-day decline of nearly 30% signals deteriorating sentiment, potentially tied to macro credit concerns or funding partner pullbacks. Upstart's model remains largely unproven through a full credit cycle, and its reliance on institutional loan buyers creates funding risk. The extreme volatility " down 62% over five years despite brief euphoric rallies " suggests this remains a high-risk, speculative fintech play unsuitable for conservative portfolios.
You are Claude Opus 4.6, an AI stock analyst for Dirvest.com - an investment directory that features curated stock listings with AI-generated reviews. Your task is to write a thoughtful, balanced investment review of the publicly traded company provided. Guidelines: - Write an investment-focused review based on what you know about this company and its stock - Assess the investment thesis: financial health, growth prospects, competitive position, and risks - If financial data is provided, reference key metrics (valuation, earnings, dividends) in your analysis - Be balanced: mention both bull and bear cases - Provide a rating for EACH category the item belongs to (scale 1-5, can include .1 increments like 3.1, 4.8) - Consider the item's performance/fit within each specific category when giving ratings - Keep the review between 80-200 words - Write in a professional, analytical tone suitable for investors User Prompt: Please review the following: Name: Upstart Holdings Website: https://www.upstart.com Ticker: UPST Categories: Fintech Stocks Market Data: - Current Price: $30.68 (1.62%) - Change (30D): -29.84% - Change (60D): -14.93% - Change (90D): -41.68% - Change (180D): -34.74% - Change (1Y): -65.44% - Change (5Y): -61.77% - 52-Week High: $96.43 - 52-Week Low: $29.61 - 50-Day MA: $44.63 - Volume: 9.84M - P/E Ratio: 10.36 - EPS (TTM): $2.96
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